S&P 500 and Nasdaq Hit All-Time Highs as Trump Says Iran War Close to Over

April 16, 2026 — ECONPLEX Economy News

The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high for the first time since January and the Nasdaq notched its first record since October, as Wall Street’s stunning rebound from the Iran war selloff reached a landmark milestone on Wednesday. Tech megacaps drove the gains — Microsoft, Apple, and Tesla alone accounted for the entire S&P advance — while Bank of America and Morgan Stanley posted strong earnings. Oil steadied near $91, and Treasury yields edged higher as investors weighed ceasefire extension hopes against the reality of a still-shuttered Strait of Hormuz.

Why Wednesday Night Mattered

Wednesday was the day U.S. stocks officially erased every cent of their Iran war losses and then some. The S&P 500 surpassed its January 27 record close of 6,978.60, settling at 7,022.95 — a new all-time high. The Nasdaq Composite broke through its October 29 peak to close at 24,016.02, extending its winning streak to 11 consecutive sessions, the longest since 2021. The rally has been fueled by a trifecta of drivers: growing peace-deal expectations, a strong start to earnings season, and cooling core inflation data. (Reuters via Investing.com)

🇺🇸 U.S. Markets: New All-Time Highs

Index	Close	Change
S&P 500	7,022.95	+0.80%
Nasdaq Composite	24,016.02	+1.60%
Dow Jones	48,463.72	-0.15%
VIX	18.17	-1.03%

The S&P 500 set both a new intraday and closing record, while the Nasdaq hit its first all-time high since October 29. But the rally was notably narrow: Microsoft, Apple, and Tesla accounted for the entirety of the S&P’s gain, with breadth turning negative — more stocks declined than advanced on the NYSE. (Investing.com)

“The market is a forward-looking mechanism and appears to be discounting the war ending swiftly,” said Adam Sarhan, CEO of 50 Park Investments. “A lot of people were leaning bearish two weeks ago, and a lot of those shorts are being squeezed.” (Reuters via Investing.com)

Key Stock Movers

• Tesla +7.62% to $391.96 — surged after CEO Elon Musk touted a key milestone achieved by the EV maker’s chip design team (Investing.com)
• Microsoft +4.62% to $411.27 — largest positive contributor to the Dow and S&P 500 (Investing.com)
• Apple +2.91% to $266.35 — tech megacap rally broadened
• ServiceNow +7.29% — among the session’s top S&P gainers
• Morgan Stanley +4.52% — beat Q1 revenue expectations with $20.58B on strong equities trading (Investing.com)
• Snap +7.6% — announced 1,000 layoffs (16% of workforce) and closure of 300+ roles; CEO Spiegel targets $500M annualized savings (Investing.com)
• Allbirds +582% — the struggling footwear brand announced a pivot to AI compute infrastructure and plans to rebrand as “NewBird AI” (Investing.com)
• Carrier Global -9.45% — worst S&P 500 performer
• Caterpillar -3.03% — industrial names lagged as breadth narrowed
• Live Nation -6.30% — a New York jury found the Ticketmaster parent illegally monopolized live event ticketing markets (Reuters via Investing.com)

Trump: War “Very Close to Over” — Market “Is Going to Boom”

In a prerecorded Fox Business interview broadcast Wednesday, President Trump said the Iran war is “very close to over” and predicted the stock market “is going to boom” once it ends. “We’ve beaten them militarily, totally,” Trump said. “If I pulled up stakes right now it would take them 20 years to rebuild.” (CNBC)

The Associated Press, citing regional officials, reported an “in principle agreement” to extend the two-week ceasefire set to expire April 21. However, a senior U.S. official told CNBC that the U.S. “has not formally agreed to an extension.” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Washington “feel[s] good about the prospects of a deal” and confirmed talks would likely resume in Islamabad. (CNBC)

Reuters reported that Iran could consider allowing ships to sail freely through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz as part of proposals in negotiations. Meanwhile, U.S. Central Command confirmed it has “fully implemented” the naval blockade, “completely” cutting off Iran’s international sea trade. (Reuters via Investing.com)

Bank Earnings: Trading Desks Ride War Volatility

Bank of America posted a rise in quarterly profit, with sales and trading revenue jumping 13% to $6.4 billion — driven by market volatility from the Iran war, a hawkish Fed pivot, and AI-related rotation. Shares rose 1.8%. (Investing.com)

Morgan Stanley reported better-than-anticipated Q1 net revenue of $20.58 billion on strong equities sales and trading. Shares gained 4.5%. (Investing.com)

S&P 500 information technology earnings are expected to grow 46.2% this quarter — the biggest profit increase of any sector — compared with 35.8% growth expected at the start of the year, according to LSEG I/B/E/S data. (Reuters via Investing.com)

➜ Understanding how to evaluate quarterly results? See our guide: How to Read Earnings Reports

Oil Steadies, Strait Flows Begin to Trickle

Commodity	Price	Change
WTI Crude	$91.29	+0.01%
Brent Crude	$94.93	+0.15%
Gold (Safe Haven)	$4,814.49	-0.73%

Oil prices barely budged after Tuesday’s steep declines, as peace-deal optimism was offset by the ongoing stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz. Energy consulting firm Gelber & Associates noted a small but increasing number of tankers were moving through the strait, and that the market was “no longer pricing a full-scale outage, but still holding a residual premium as flows recover unevenly.” A surprisingly large draw in U.S. weekly crude inventories, reported by the EIA, helped support prices. (Reuters via Investing.com)

Gold retreated 0.73% to $4,814.49 per troy ounce as the risk-on mood reduced safe-haven demand. (Investing.com)

Bonds & Dollar: Treasuries Slide, Dollar Nearly Flat

U.S. Treasuries slid as risk appetite improved and the equity rally drew capital away from bonds. The 10-year yield rose 2.5 basis points to 4.282%, while the 2-year yield ticked up 1 bp to 3.761%. (Reuters via Investing.com)

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was nearly flat at 98.08, on track for its eighth consecutive session of declines. EUR/USD held steady at 1.18 and USD/JPY edged up to 158.97. “Not only are we at the mercy of the headlines over the conflict, but now the focus is going to be on economic growth,” said Juan Perez, senior director of trading at Monex US. (Reuters via Investing.com)

🇪🇺 European Perspective: Energy Shock Hits Harder

Disruptions to global energy markets from the Iran war have had a notably larger impact on European markets than on the United States, which is a net energy exporter, according to David Seif, chief economist for developed markets at Nomura. “If you look at what has happened to bond prices in the U.S., Treasuries, versus in Europe, it hasn’t been good for U.S. bond prices but it has been arguably a lot less negative,” Seif said. (Reuters via Investing.com)

The yield on the benchmark German 10-year Bund rose 1.5 basis points to 3.045%. While ceasefire hopes have lifted European equities in recent sessions, the continent remains more vulnerable to energy price shocks originating from the Hormuz closure. (Reuters via Investing.com)

What to Watch Today

• TSMC earnings — the world’s largest chipmaker reports, a potential market-mover for the entire semiconductor/AI supply chain
• PepsiCo, Abbott Labs, Travelers, U.S. Bancorp, Charles Schwab — all report before the bell (CNBC)
• Weekly jobless claims + March industrial production — will signal labor market health and manufacturing momentum (CNBC)
• Iran ceasefire — AP reports an “in principle” extension agreement, but the U.S. has not formally confirmed it. Any breakdown before April 21 could reverse the rally quickly
• S&P 500 breadth — Wednesday’s record was driven by just three stocks. “If we’re going to continue higher, I think we are going to have to have a broadening out here,” said Tim Hayes of Ned Davis Research (CNBC)
• Fed rate outlook — with CPI and PPI pointing to sticky energy-driven headline inflation, markets see limited room for cuts

The Bottom Line

The S&P 500 has come full circle. From a near-correction in early March to a fresh record in April — a 14% swing driven largely by three megacap tech stocks and the hope that diplomacy will succeed where military escalation could not. As Mark Hackett of Nationwide put it, “breakouts from extended bases are powerful, as those waiting on the sidelines move as a herd.” But the narrow breadth is a warning: if the peace narrative falters or earnings disappoint beyond the banks, this rally’s foundation could prove fragile.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.