Wall Street extended its record-breaking run on Monday, May 11, 2026, in a session that delivered a stark illustration of the market’s current psychology: geopolitical setbacks are being shrugged off as long as the technology and AI sectors keep delivering. The S&P 500 rose 0.19% to 7,412.84 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.10% to 26,274.13 — both setting fresh all-time records — even as crude oil surged nearly 3% after President Trump declared Iran’s peace counteroffer “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE.” Europe, facing a double dose of geopolitical uncertainty from both Iran and a fragile Ukraine ceasefire, ended mixed and cautious.
US Markets: Records Amid the Noise
Trump Rejects Iran’s Counteroffer — But Markets Tune It Out
The session began with a fresh escalation in US-Iran diplomacy. Trump wrote on Truth Social Sunday night that he had read Iran’s response to the US peace proposal and found it “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE”, before telling reporters Monday that the month-old ceasefire is now “on life support” and “unbelievably weak.” Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency had reported that Tehran’s counteroffer focused on ending the war on all fronts and lifting US sanctions — but the memorandum of understanding framework proposed by the US on May 6 was effectively rebuffed.
The result was an immediate spike in energy prices: WTI crude settled up 2.78% at $98.07 per barrel, while Brent crude rose 2.88% to close at $104.20 per barrel. Netanyahu also warned that the conflict was “not over,” adding to energy-market anxiety. Yet equity markets barely flinched. The S&P 500 hit a fresh intraday all-time high before settling just modestly above Friday’s close.
“The tech boom is just too powerful to let the fact that energy prices are high affect the US economy or the US stock market,” said Jay Hatfield, founder and CEO at Infrastructure Capital Advisors. “Everybody’s tuning out the Middle East.” He added that the market might trend “more flattish” for the next couple of months as long as Iran-war overhang persists, but that this is being offset by what he described as the “unprecedented” tech boom.
Wolfe Research analyst Tobin Marcus echoed that assessment from a different angle, writing that despite the frustration and low-level military exchanges, “we don’t expect a return to hot war.” Trump appears reluctant to resume full hostilities, Marcus argued, pointing to the president’s decision not to treat last week’s weapons exchanges as a ceasefire violation.
Tech and AI Continue to Lead: Micron, Nvidia, Monday.com
With the macro backdrop turbulent, technology stocks once again served as the market’s engine. Micron Technology (MU) surged 6.5%, extending a memory chip rally that analysts are calling “unstoppable.” Multiple Wall Street firms hold $1,000 price targets on Micron, with bulls citing relentless HBM demand from AI data centers as the primary driver. Nvidia (NVDA) gained nearly 2%.
Monday.com (MNDY) surged 26% in premarket trading — and held most of those gains — after reporting Q1 results that beat expectations on both top and bottom lines. Revenue grew 24% year-over-year to $351.3 million, versus the $339.1 million analyst estimate, with CEO Roy Mann attributing the beat in part to the launch of the company’s AI platform. The result reinforced the broader enterprise software narrative: AI adoption is driving real revenue acceleration, not just promises.
Among the other top performers from the CNBC market movers data: Lumentum (LITE) +16.5% after announcing it would join the Nasdaq 100 index on May 18 (replacing CoStar), Coherent Corp (COHR) +13.3%, and Corning (GLW) +10.9% — the latter continuing to benefit from its Nvidia optical fiber deal announced the prior week. Qualcomm (QCOM) +8.4% and CF Industries (CF) +8.2% also featured among the day’s top gainers.
Copper Closes at an All-Time Record
One of the day’s most notable macro signals came from commodities, not equities. Copper futures settled at a record closing high of $6.4605 per pound, up more than 2% on the session and now up over 13% in 2026. The metal rose as high as $6.509 intraday — its highest level since January. The record reflects a combination of structurally elevated demand from the global AI and data center build-out (which requires vast quantities of copper for power infrastructure and wiring) and geopolitical supply-chain concerns. The copper-gold ratio, a traditional macro signal for economic confidence, rose with it.
Retail Stocks Post Worst Day in Over a Year
Not everything rallied. Consumer-facing retail stocks had their worst session in more than a year. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) fell more than 3.6% — its biggest single-day drop since early April 2025. Caleres (shoe brands Famous Footwear and Sam Edelman) tumbled more than 9%, and Kohl’s also fell more than 9%. Roth’s chief market technician JC O’Hara wrote Sunday that consumer discretionary stocks have “fallen to their worst relative level versus the S&P 500 since late 2022,” warning that the relative underperformance “may force a new down leg in many names.”
Among individual decliners: Dollar General (DG) -7.6%, Trade Desk (TTD) -6.8%, Target (TGT) -5.4%, Netflix (NFLX) -2% (hit by a Texas Attorney General lawsuit alleging the company collected and sold subscriber behavioral data without consent). The split between AI-driven tech and consumer-facing names reflects what many strategists describe as a “K-shaped” market: the haves and have-nots defined by proximity to the AI spend cycle.
Wall Street Raises S&P 500 Targets
Even as the market paused for breath, strategists competed to ratchet up their forecasts. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research hiked his year-end S&P 500 target to 8,250 from 7,700, saying on CNBC’s Squawk Box: “I’ve been bullish, but not bullish enough. The earnings estimates of analysts have been phenomenal. I’ve never seen anything like it.” HSBC’s Nicole Inui separately lifted her year-end target by 150 points to 7,650, while also noting that the S&P 500 could breach 8,000 if AI sentiment continues to rebound and geopolitical risk fades.
However, CFRA Research’s Sam Stovall urged caution: the S&P 500’s relative strength index (RSI) closed in overbought territory as of May 6 — also alongside overbought readings for the communication services and IT sectors and the Nasdaq 100. “Before a continuation of the current bull market run, the S&P 500 may need to take some time to catch its breath,” he wrote.
US Market Snapshot — May 11, 2026
| Indicator | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,412.84 | +0.19% ★ Record |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,274.13 | +0.10% ★ Record |
| Dow Jones | 49,704.47 | +95.31 pts (+0.19%) |
| WTI Crude Oil | $98.07/bbl | +2.78% |
| Brent Crude Oil | $104.20/bbl | +2.88% |
| Copper (Jul ’26) | $6.4605/lb | +2%+ ★ Record |
| US 10-Year Treasury | — | Yields moved higher |
Monitor live macroeconomic indicators and commodity prices on the EconPlex Indicators page.
European Markets: Mixed as Two Wars Weigh
European equity markets began the new week in distinctly cautious territory, buffeted by two simultaneous geopolitical headwinds: the deteriorating US-Iran peace process, and fresh doubts about the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.
Iran Impasse Revives Oil Risk Premium in Europe
The same Iran news that barely dented US stocks weighed more heavily on European markets, which are more directly exposed to elevated oil costs through energy-intensive industries and freight costs. London and Frankfurt managed small gains, but Paris and Madrid ended in the red as cautious positioning dominated.
Ukraine Ceasefire in Doubt: Defense Stocks Reverse Course
A secondary headwind came from the Russia-Ukraine front. Ukraine’s military reported Russian drone strikes over the weekend, in an apparent violation of a two-day ceasefire agreed between the two sides. Russia’s President Putin had suggested at the Victory Day parade in Moscow that an end to the four-year war could be in sight — but the weekend drone strikes undermined that narrative. Defense stocks, which had rallied on ceasefire hopes, gave back gains sharply: Leonardo (Italy) -4.6%, Renk (Germany) -4.2%, Rheinmetall (Germany) -3.1%, Babcock International (UK) -3.2%.
By contrast, telecoms led European sector gains at +1.2%, with banks and miners also moving higher — the latter supported by copper’s record run.
European Index Closes
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| STOXX Europe 600 | 612.79 | +0.65 (+0.11%) |
| FTSE 100 (London) | 10,269.43 | +36.36 (+0.36%) |
| DAX (Frankfurt) | 24,350.28 | +11.65 (+0.05%) |
| CAC 40 (Paris) | 8,056.38 | -56.19 (-0.69%) |
| FTSE MIB (Milan) | 49,664.95 | +375.41 (+0.76%) |
| IBEX 35 (Madrid) | 17,852.50 | -36.90 (-0.21%) |
UK Political Headwind: Starmer Under Pressure
An additional weight on UK sentiment came from Westminster. Prime Minister Keir Starmer was fighting for his political survival after a difficult run of local election results, delivering what observers described as a pivotal speech on Monday. UK gilt yields, which had been moving higher alongside US Treasuries, reflected the combined pressure of persistent inflation, Middle East uncertainty, and domestic political risk.
What to Watch on May 12 (Tuesday)
- US April CPI: Analysts expect the reading to show inflation at its highest level in nearly three years, driven by oil-price pass-through and tight labor markets. A hotter-than-expected print would reinforce market expectations that the Federal Reserve cannot cut rates this summer. Monitor the release in real time on the EconPlex Economic Calendar.
- Trump-Xi summit: Trump is inviting Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Larry Fink, and other CEOs to join him for a China trip and summit with President Xi. Any positive trade signals from this meeting would be a major catalyst for markets already at record highs — the Kospi’s 25%+ upside target from JPMorgan rests partly on this scenario.
- Iran diplomatic response: After Trump’s “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE” rejection, will Iran respond with a new counter or walk away from talks entirely? Oil markets are watching closely.
- After-hours earnings from May 11: Hims & Hers, GitLab, and Cleanspark reported after Monday’s close. Their reactions will be visible at the Tuesday open.
The defining tension in this market remains stark: two geopolitical conflicts (Iran, Ukraine) are pushing oil above $100, threatening the inflation trajectory and consumer spending — yet an AI-driven tech earnings cycle is generating what Yardeni called “phenomenal” earnings revisions. Until one of these forces definitively wins out, expect more sessions like Monday: modest records at the headline level, but a deeply divided market underneath.
Follow real-time index levels, commodity prices, and earnings data on EconPlex Indicators.
Sources: CNBC Markets Live (May 11), CNBC — Iran ceasefire on life support, CNBC — Brent tops $104, CNBC — Micron rally, CNBC — CPI preview, CNBC — Trump-Xi summit, CNBC — Starmer political pressure