Friday’s session delivered one of the sharpest divergences of the year. On Wall Street, a blowout Intel earnings report ignited the entire semiconductor sector — pushing the Nasdaq toward its best monthly gain since April 2020. Across the Atlantic, Europe traded in the opposite direction: Germany’s business sentiment sank to a six-year low, and Brent crude held above $105 a barrel as the Iran war showed no sign of resolution.
US Markets: The Chip Trade Is Back
The S&P 500 closed at 7,165.08 (+0.80%), while the Nasdaq Composite surged +1.63% to 24,836.60 — now up roughly 15% in April, on track for its best month since April 2020. The Dow Jones edged lower, finishing at 49,230.71 (−0.16%), weighed down by sharp declines in cable names. The VIX fell 3.1% to 18.71, reflecting easing near-term fear.
Intel: Best Day Since 1987
The catalyst was unmistakable. Intel’s stock surged 24% — its biggest single-day move since October 1987 — after the company’s Q1 results beat Wall Street estimates. Revenue rose 7.2% year-over-year to $13.58 billion, ending a string of five revenue declines in the prior seven quarters. Data center revenue jumped 22% to $5.1 billion, driven by renewed demand for CPUs as AI infrastructure investment accelerates. CEO Lip-Bu Tan said on the earnings call that Intel’s foundry business now has “multiple customers actively evaluating” its next-generation 14A process node. Analysts at Evercore ISI and Citi both upgraded the stock following the results.
Nvidia Crosses $5 Trillion
The Intel rally pulled the entire chip sector higher. Nvidia closed at a record $208.27 (+4.3%), pushing its market cap past $5 trillion for the first time. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) jumped +14% and Qualcomm climbed +11%. Investors are positioning ahead of next week’s hyperscaler earnings — Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta all report in the coming days — which are expected to confirm continued AI infrastructure buildout.
Charter and Comcast Drag the Dow
Not all sectors participated. Charter Communications dropped 25.5% and Comcast fell 12.9%, both reflecting subscriber pressure in the traditional cable business. Their losses were the primary drag on the Dow.
Fed: Powell Probe Dropped
A significant policy development also played out during the session. The Department of Justice dropped its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, removing the last major procedural hurdle to the Senate confirming Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Markets interpreted the development as reducing uncertainty around the near-term Fed leadership transition. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at its next meeting, with the US 10-year Treasury yield easing slightly to 4.306% (−1.7bps).
European Markets: Energy Shock Darkens the Mood
European equities ended the week on a sour note, weighed down by a deteriorating German economic outlook and persistently high oil prices.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| STOXX Europe 600 | 610.65 | −0.58% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,379.08 | −0.75% |
| CAC 40 | 8,157.82 | −0.84% |
| DAX | 24,128.98 | −0.11% |
| FTSE MIB | 47,656.11 | −0.52% |
Germany: Ifo Hits Six-Year Low
The single biggest market mover was Germany’s monthly Ifo Business Climate Index, which fell sharply to 84.4 in April from 86.3 in March — its lowest reading since May 2020, early in the Covid-19 pandemic. Ifo president Clemens Fuest said plainly: “What we are seeing is that the German economy is hit hard by the Iran crisis. Companies are telling us there is trouble ahead.”
Germany’s government earlier in the week slashed its 2026 GDP growth forecast from 1.0% to 0.5%, and its 2027 forecast from 1.3% to 0.9%. Inflation is now expected to hit 2.7% this year. Brent crude, which has surged roughly 73% year-to-date due to the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, is hammering Germany’s energy-intensive industrial sector and diverting fiscal firepower away from structural reform.
UK: Trump Tariff Warning Clouds Trade Outlook
Adding pressure on the FTSE 100, President Trump threatened to impose “big tariffs” on the UK unless London drops its 2% digital services tax on US tech companies including Google, Meta, and Apple. The warning comes days before King Charles III and Queen Camilla are due in Washington for a state visit — raising the stakes on an already delicate UK-US trade relationship.
Common Macro Variables
| Factor | Level / Status |
|---|---|
| Brent Crude | ~$105.33/bbl (Iran war, Strait of Hormuz) |
| WTI Crude | $94.88 (−1.01%) |
| Gold | $4,725.40/oz (+0.03%) |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.306% (−1.7bps) |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.785% (−4bps) |
| USD Index | 98.51 (−0.26%) |
| VIX | 18.71 (−3.11%) |
The broader picture: oil remains the single largest macro overhang for global markets. High energy costs are simultaneously squeezing European industrial margins, elevating inflation expectations, and complicating Fed rate-path calculations. The slight fall in US Treasury yields suggests bond markets are still pricing in rate cuts at some point — but the timing remains deeply uncertain with Warsh’s confirmation adding further Fed leadership ambiguity.
What to Watch Next Week
For Asian and Korean investors opening positions on Monday, these are the key items on the radar:
- Mag-7 earnings gauntlet: Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet report this coming week. Their AI capex guidance will either confirm or question the chip trade’s durability.
- FOMC meeting: The Fed is broadly expected to hold rates steady, but any language around the Warsh transition or inflation trajectory will be scrutinized. Check the ECONPLEX Economic Calendar for the exact schedule.
- Iran / Strait of Hormuz developments: Any ceasefire signal or escalation will move Brent crude sharply — and with it, European equities and global inflation expectations.
- US PCE data (April 30): The Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge. A hot print would push back rate-cut timing further.
- UK-US trade talks: Trump’s tariff threat against the UK digital services tax could add noise to the FTSE 100 next week.
- Sector watch: Tech vs. healthcare divergence is widening — cable/media names face continued structural pressure.
Glossary: VIX · PMI · PCE · Treasury Yield Curve
References: Nvidia $5T — CNBC · Intel +24% — CNBC · Germany Ifo — CNBC · UK Tariff Warning — CNBC · DOJ/Powell — CNBC
Track the indicators behind today’s moves — Treasury yields, oil prices, sector performance, and more — in real time at ECONPLEX Market Dashboard. The Economic Calendar has next week’s full schedule.