Nikkei Jumps 2.5%, KOSPI Gains 3.6% on Iran Ceasefire Relief; KOSDAQ Bucks the Trend — Asia Markets May 29, 2026

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Asian equity markets largely surged on Friday, May 29, as the previous night’s dramatic US reversal — fueled by reports of a 60-day US-Iran ceasefire framework — gave markets in Japan and Korea a powerful tailwind. Japan’s Nikkei 225 led gains across the region, while Korea’s large-cap index posted one of its strongest single-day advances in weeks. The notable exception was KOSDAQ, which fell sharply, highlighting a clear rotation away from domestic growth names and toward export-oriented blue chips.

Japan: Nikkei Breaks Higher on Hormuz Optimism

The Nikkei 225 closed at 66,329.50, adding 1,636.38 points (+2.53%) on the session to reach a new 52-week high. The catalyst was the same that lifted Wall Street on Thursday: credible reports that the US and Iran are converging on a 60-day ceasefire deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. Japan imports nearly all of its crude oil, with the majority transiting the Strait, making a Hormuz reopening uniquely meaningful for Japanese markets. As AP reported, analyst Stephen Innes noted that “markets are rapidly transitioning from pricing geopolitical fear toward pricing a potential peace dividend as Hormuz reopening expectations pressure oil and the dollar lower.”

With Brent crude pulling back toward $90.61 (−2.25%), Japan’s import-heavy economy saw a direct cost relief signal, amplifying equity gains. Energy and export-sensitive sectors led the advance.

Korea: KOSPI Surges, KOSDAQ Diverges

The session in Seoul delivered a split verdict. The KOSPI composite rose approximately +3.55%, with the KOSPI 200 — which tracks Korea’s 200 largest listed companies — closing at 1,342.82 (+3.89%), its highest level in recent months. Samsung Electronics, which dominates the KOSPI, surged alongside the broader large-cap advance as its semiconductor and technology hardware businesses stood to benefit from improved supply chain conditions if Hormuz reopens.

Meanwhile, the KOSDAQ Composite — Korea’s growth and technology-focused exchange — fell 1,074.80 (−2.68%), gapping down at the open and continuing to sell off through the session. The divergence was sharp: KOSPI large caps surged while KOSDAQ growth stocks were offloaded. Several factors likely contributed:

  • Currency pressure: USD/KRW strengthened by 0.68% to 1,503.96, reflecting a weaker Korean won. A softer won raises import costs for smaller domestic-focused companies more exposed on KOSDAQ, while benefiting large exporters like Samsung on the KOSPI.
  • Profit-taking: KOSDAQ had outperformed earlier in the week; Friday’s session appeared to see institutional rotation out of growth names and into blue chips.
  • Sector divergence: Biotech, platform, and consumer tech — the core of KOSDAQ — did not benefit directly from oil-linked peace dividend narratives, unlike semiconductors and heavy industry.

A notable development: Synopsys confirmed a Samsung AI chip design collaboration, per reporting by Simply Wall St., adding further tailwind to Samsung’s large-cap standing on the KOSPI.

Hong Kong: Modest Gains Amid Cautious Optimism

The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,182.39 (+176.23 / +0.70%), recovering from the prior session’s close of 25,006.16. The move was constructive but measured — Hong Kong markets absorbed the ceasefire news positively while remaining cautious about whether the Iran deal would receive formal Trump approval before the weekend. Tech and property names showed mixed performance.

Macro Variables

  • Brent crude: Continued its retreat, trading near $90.61 on growing confidence that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Each session’s move lower in oil provides additional disinflationary signal for Asia’s import-heavy economies.
  • USD/KRW: Dollar strength at 1,503.96 (+0.68%) was a headwind for KOSDAQ but neutral-to-positive for large exporters. Monitor this closely heading into the next week.
  • VIX: Fell further in US trading, reflecting reduced near-term uncertainty. This backdrop supports continued risk-on positioning into the week ahead.
  • US April PCE: Thursday’s lower-than-expected PCE reading added to the improving macro picture — less inflation pressure, the prospect of eventual Fed rate easing, and a more supportive backdrop for risk assets globally.

What to Watch Next Week

  1. Iran deal confirmation: The 60-day ceasefire framework still required formal Trump sign-off as of Friday’s close. Weekend news flow on this front will set the tone for Monday’s Asia open. Confirmation lifts oil-sensitive names further; breakdown reverses the week’s gains.
  2. KOSDAQ recovery vs. continuation: The gap between KOSPI (+3.55%) and KOSDAQ (−2.68%) in a single session is unusual. Watch for whether Monday sees a KOSDAQ rebound (rotation reversal) or continued divergence.
  3. Oil price trajectory: A sustained decline in Brent crude below $90 would provide additional relief for Asia’s oil importers — Japan, Korea, Taiwan — supporting further equity gains.
  4. Key economic events: Check the Economic Calendar on ECONPLEX for next week’s data releases, including any Fed-related commentary and Asia-region macro prints.

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Stay ahead of the next move: Track Nikkei, KOSPI, KOSDAQ, and Brent crude in real time on ECONPLEX. Don’t miss next week’s key events on the Economic Calendar.

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