Wall Street exploded higher on Tuesday, March 31, closing out a brutal first quarter with its best single-day performance since May 2025. The rally was fueled by growing speculation that the Iran war — now in its fifth week — could be approaching an end. European markets also eked out modest gains, though the Stoxx 600 still posted its worst monthly decline since mid-2022.
U.S. Market Performance — March 31, 2026
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 Dow Jones Industrial Average | 46,341.51 | +1,125.37 (+2.49%) |
| 🇺🇸 S&P 500 | 6,528.52 | +184.80 (+2.91%) |
| 🇺🇸 Nasdaq Composite | 21,590.63 | +795.99 (+3.83%) |
| 🇺🇸 Russell 2000 | 2,496.37 | +82.37 (+3.41%) |
| 📈 VIX (Fear Index) | 25.25 | −5.36 (−17.51%) |
All three major U.S. indexes recorded their biggest one-day gains since May 2025, when investors had reacted to a truce in the trade war between Washington and Beijing. The rally was broad-based, with 441 of the S&P 500’s components finishing in the green. Ten of 11 S&P 500 sectors advanced, led by communication services (+4.42%) and information technology (+4.24%). Energy was the sole decliner, falling 1.2%.
Source: Reuters, CNBC, MarketWatch
What Sparked the Rally: Iran War De-Escalation Hopes
The catalyst was a combination of reports suggesting the conflict may be winding down. The Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump told aides he was willing to end the military campaign against Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed. Separately, an unconfirmed report indicated that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was ready to end the conflict with guarantees.
Trump later told the New York Post that “we’re not going to be there too much longer,” while U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the next few days would be decisive and warned Tehran that the conflict would intensify without a deal.
“What you’re seeing in capital markets today is speculation around an earlier off-ramp, or a cessation of hostilities,” said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. “Details are light, but the capital markets are looking for any indication that there is an opportunity for a more normal flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Big Tech Rebounds; Chips Surge
Technology stocks, which have been under sustained pressure since the conflict began, staged a powerful relief rally. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) closed more than 4% higher, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index jumped 6.24% in its strongest session in nearly a year.
| Stock | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nvidia (NVDA) | $174.40 | +5.59% |
| Meta Platforms (META) | — | +6.7% |
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | — | +5.1% |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | $370.17 | +3.12% |
| Apple (AAPL) | $253.79 | +2.90% |
| On Semiconductor (ON) | — | +10%+ |
| Marvell Technology (MRVL) | $99.05 | +12.8% |
Marvell Technology surged 12.8% after Nvidia invested $2 billion in the company as part of a strategic partnership to connect Marvell to Nvidia’s AI factory and radio access network. CoreWeave (CRWV) also rallied 12% after securing an $8.5 billion loan to expand AI infrastructure.
On the S&P 500’s leaderboard, On Semiconductor led the way with a gain of more than 10%, followed by Monolithic Power and Coinbase, each rallying 8%+. United Airlines and Carnival both surged close to 8% as travel names benefited from lower oil hopes.
Source: CNBC, MarketWatch
Dow Components: Top Gainers & Laggards
| Company | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar (CAT) | $708.46 | +6.15% |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | $174.40 | +5.59% |
| Boeing (BA) | $199.03 | +5.19% |
| Goldman Sachs (GS) | $845.99 | +4.75% |
| JPMorgan Chase (JPM) | $294.16 | +3.66% |
| Chevron (CVX) | $206.90 | −1.81% |
| Coca-Cola (KO) | $76.05 | −0.29% |
Volume on U.S. exchanges was heavy, with 22.4 billion shares traded — above the 20-session average of 20.3 billion. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners in the S&P 500 by a 5.2-to-1 ratio.
Source: MarketWatch, Reuters
Notable Corporate Moves
- McCormick (MKC) −6.1% — Unilever agreed to merge its food unit with McCormick in a cash-and-stock deal valuing the spice maker at ~$44.8 billion. The deal involves a $15.7 billion cash component. Unilever shareholders would hold 65% of the combined entity.
- Constellation Energy (CEG) −6.5% — Dropped after forecasting 2026 profit below Wall Street expectations.
- Snap (SNAP) +14.4% — Jumped on a Bloomberg report that activist investor Irenic Capital Management is building a stake and sees a path to $26.37 for the stock.
- Nike (NKE) +3.1% — Rose despite sliding after hours on tariff impact concerns, as the company posted an earnings beat showing its turnaround continues.
- Warren Buffett on Apple: Told CNBC he “sold Apple too soon” and would buy more — but “not in this market.”
Economic Data: Consumer Confidence Up, But Labor Market Weakens
The Conference Board reported that its headline consumer confidence index improved to 91.8 in March, up 0.8 points from February and better than the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 87.5. The present situation index jumped 4.6 points to 123.3.
The labor market picture was less encouraging. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ JOLTS report showed job openings fell to 6.88 million in February, down 358,000 from the prior month. Hiring dropped sharply to 4.85 million — the lowest level in nearly six years.
Meanwhile, money market traders now believe the Fed is more likely to raise interest rates by year-end than lower them, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The oil spike stemming from the Iran war has revived inflation worries.
European Markets Close Higher, but Post Worst Month Since 2022
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 STOXX Europe 600 | 583.14 | +2.41 (+0.41%) |
| 🇪🇺 Euro STOXX 50 | 5,569.73 | +0.50% |
| 🇬🇧 FTSE 100 | 10,176.45 | +48.49 (+0.48%) |
| 🇩🇪 DAX | 22,680.04 | +117.16 (+0.52%) |
| 🇫🇷 CAC 40 | 7,816.94 | +44.49 (+0.57%) |
| 🇪🇸 IBEX 35 | 17,049.60 | +80.40 (+0.47%) |
| 🇮🇹 FTSE MIB | 44,309.71 | +486.47 (+1.11%) |
European stocks rose on Tuesday, but the session marked the end of a devastating March. The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed out March with a monthly decline of 7.99% — its biggest monthly loss since mid-2022, as lingering uncertainty over the Iran war trajectory weighed on sentiment throughout the month.
Italy’s FTSE MIB led the day’s gains among major bourses at +1.11%, while all other major European indexes posted moderate advances between 0.4% and 0.6%.
Euro Zone Inflation Surges Past ECB Target
Fresh Eurostat data showed that euro zone inflation jumped to 2.5% in March, up sharply from 1.9% in February and well above the European Central Bank’s 2% target. The energy component of CPI swung from −3.1% in February to +4.9% in March, driven directly by the Iran war’s impact on global fuel costs.
European Corporate News
- Unilever (ULVR) −7% — Shares tumbled after the company confirmed advanced talks with McCormick to merge its foods business with the U.S. spice maker. The deal involves an upfront cash component of approximately $15.7 billion, with Unilever shareholders holding 65% of the combined company.
- Novo Nordisk (NVO) −0.1% — Launched a multi-month subscription program for its Wegovy obesity drug, offering “predictable” monthly pricing for cash-paying patients as it fights to retain market share from Eli Lilly.
- Greece to rejoin MSCI developed markets index — MSCI announced that Greek stocks will return to its developed markets index in May 2027, marking a milestone in the Greek economy’s normalization after its debt crisis.
Oil, Commodities & Currencies
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 🛢️ Brent Crude | $118.35/bbl | +4.94% (highest close since June 2022) |
| 🛢️ WTI Crude | $101.38/bbl | −1.46% |
| 🪙 Gold (COMEX) | $4,677.70 | +0.65% |
| 🏦 U.S. 10Y Treasury | 4.321% | −0.022 |
| 💶 EUR/USD | 1.1557 | +0.04% |
| 💴 U.S. Gasoline (avg) | $4.018/gal | Highest since Aug 2022 |
Brent crude settled at $118.35 per barrel — its highest close since June 16, 2022 — after Bloomberg reported that Iran struck a Kuwaiti oil tanker in Dubai waters. The Dubai government confirmed no injuries among the 24 crew members. Brent oil has surged more than 60% in March, posting the biggest monthly gain dating back to 1988.
Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline prices surged above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years, according to AAA data. Gas prices have soared more than 30% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in late February.
Gold futures paced a third straight winning session, hitting an intraday high of $4,649.50 — though gold is still down 12.9% month-to-date, on pace for its worst monthly decline since October 2008.
Q1 Scorecard: A Brutal Quarter Ends With a Bang
Despite Tuesday’s fireworks, the damage for Q1 2026 was already done:
| Index | March | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | −5.1% | −4.6% |
| Dow Jones | −5.4% | −3.6% |
| Nasdaq Composite | −4.8% | −7.1% |
| STOXX Europe 600 | −7.99% | — |
The S&P 500 logged its worst month since 2022, while the Dow’s March decline snapped a 10-month winning streak. Ten of 11 S&P 500 sectors ended March in the red — only energy, up 12.5%, was the outlier. The S&P 500 and Dow posted their deepest quarterly declines since 2022 as investors worried higher fuel costs could hurt consumer demand and force the Fed to raise rates.
“Any steps toward ending the war overall, the stock market likes, and so, you are getting that relief rally,” said Eric Diton, president at The Wealth Alliance. “But no, we’re not out of the woods. If we haven’t solved the oil problem, then that continues to put pressure.”
Looking Ahead
Markets now enter Q2 with the Iran conflict still unresolved but with growing hopes of a diplomatic off-ramp. Key events to watch this week:
- Good Friday (April 4): U.S. markets closed. The March non-farm payrolls report will still be released that morning, with markets reacting the following Monday.
- Iran diplomacy: Whether Trump’s rhetoric translates into concrete progress remains the market’s dominant variable.
- Oil prices: With Brent near $118 and U.S. gasoline at $4, any further escalation could push markets closer to recession territory.
Source: CNBC, Financial Times
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All data is sourced from publicly available reports. Market conditions are subject to rapid change — always do your own research before making investment decisions.
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